style="margin-left:.5in;">Germany: Can I suggest you move your armies east and then I will support you? Then next year you move [there] and dismantle Turkey. I will deal with England and France,
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, you take out Italy.
Austria: Sounds like a perfect plan,
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! Happy to follow through. And—thank you Bruder!
Austria’s next move was invading German territory,
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. Bam! Betrayal.
An increase planning-related language by the soon-to-be victim also indicated impending betrayal, a signal that emerges a few rounds before the treachery ensues. And correspondence of soon-to-be betrayers had an uptick in positive sentiment in the lead-up to their breach.
Working from these linguistic cues,
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, a computer program could peg future betrayal 57 percent of the time. That might not sound like much,
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, but it was better than the accuracy of the human players, who never saw it coming. And remember that by definition,
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, a betrayer conceals the intention to betray; the breach is unexpected (that whole trust thing). Given that inherent deceit, 57 percent isn’t so bad.
When I spoke to Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil, he said that more important than the clues themselves is the shift in the balance of behavior in the relationship.? Positive or negative sentiment of one player isn’t what matters, it’s the asymmetry of the behavior of the two people in the relationship. He likens the linguistic tells to body language: While you wouldn’t use it as a sole basis for decision-making,
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, if you know how to interpret it,
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, it might give you an advantage.
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