Samuel Ting, a Nobel laureate from MIT who leads the AMS experiment, is optimistic about the project’s chances. “I think there is no question we are going to solve this problem” of the positrons’ origin, he said. One clue comes from studying the abundance of positrons at very high energies, which AMS is the first to explore. In general,
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, the number of positrons increases as their energies rise, but the new AMS data shows that at a certain point, that increase tails off.

If the number of positrons at high energies suddenly plummets, Ting said,
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, it would suggest dark matter as a source. He said it would take at least several more months for AMS to detect enough of these high-energy particles to come to a definitive conclusion. Piergiorgio Picozza,
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, spokesman for the PAMELA mission, eagerly awaits that announcement,
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, saying it may bring “pleasant surprises,
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,” he said. “We have to wait and to hope.”

Adam Falkowski,
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, a particle physicist at the National Center for Scientific Research in Paris,
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, is more pessimistic: “There's absolutely no way that measurements of the positron spectrum may give us a robust evidence for dark matter, not now, and not anytime soon,
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,” he wrote on his blog.

For Ting, these results have been a long time coming. He first proposed the idea of a space-based cosmic ray detector in 1994. He kept the project alive through lobbying NASA officials and Congress during years of delays, cost overruns and the 2003 explosion of the space shuttle Columbia. Ultimately his 8,500-kilogram magnum opus made it to the International Space Station aboard the penultimate shuttle flight in May 2011.

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