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Markets generally flat post-Macron election - analyst
 
Cape Town – Financial markets, including the rand, seem to have priced in the victory of soon-be-sworn in French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday and the anticipated market rally has not materialised, said Tumisho Grater, economic strategist at Novare Actuaries and Consultants. 
On Sunday Macron beat Marine Le Pen, the far-right presidential candidate, who managed to garner only 34% of votes in the two-way presidential race. 
Following the results, which have been hailed by many as a victory for the voice of reason and a defeat of populism, markets have not rallied as expected. 
“In fact, European markets are trading in the red, while opening calls for US markets also suggests that we could see a flat to lower open in the trading session,” Grater said.  
READ:
What Macron can do for free markets 
He opined that the market had rallied following Macron’s victory in the first round of elections two weeks ago and that the pullback can quite possibly be attributed to some degree of profit-taking as Macron’s election win seems to have been priced in already. 
“The euro is also off its overnight highs, which saw the currency rally against the greenback when initial poll figures were released on Sunday.”
In terms of the rand, further support from the Macron win has also been limited given the fact that the markets had priced in the victory, Grater said. 
Strength of European nationalism questioned
The outcome of the Dutch elections earlier this year, raised questions about the perceived strength of a nationalism and populism in Europe when Mark Rutte won against anti-Islam and anti-EU Geert Wilders. 
“The French election outcome has signalled another blow to the populist wave. Following the result, investors experienced a sigh of relief given that a pro-European Union outcome generally bodes well for stability across the Eurozone and may result in fewer market disturbances even amid tough Brexit negotiations,” Grater said. 
Elections in Britain
He is of the view that British MPs’ approval for snap elections may give Prime Minister Theresa May a stronger mandate and a better bargaining position to renegotiate the new terms of engagement between the UK and the EU. 
On April 18, May – who became Prime Minister in July 2016 when David Cameron stepped down after failing to secure Britain’s future in the EU – unexpectedly called a general election on June 8 2017. 
READ:
Brexit begins as EU receives divorce papers from UK
The Britons in a referendum in June last year unexpectedly voted to leave the EU. Under May the country is in the process of renegotiating trade and political agreements before officially leaving the bloc of 27 member countries. 
German federal elections
Germany will be the third European country to go the the polls this year and federal elections is expected to take place on September 24. 
The far-right party the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has made gains in popularity in the wake of the migrant crisis and Brexit victory in the UK. If the current ruling party the Christian Democratic Union of Germany wins the elections the incumbent Angela Merkel will remain the country’s chancellor, having been in office since November 2005. 
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