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19.02.2017, 10:31 - nieeshoes - Rank 6 - 1159 Posts
peers might be influenced by debates,
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, political ads or their own inner fickleness.

Fortunately, some polling outfits have historically asked both the intention question and the expectation question, which allowed Rothschild and Wolfers to do some comparing. The economists looked at Electoral College results of presidential races from 1952 to 2008. In most cases,
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, the answers to the intention and expectation questions were the same. But in the 77 cases in which the questions predicted different outcomes,
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, the expectation question correctly picked the winner 78 percent of the time.

It turns out that even when you have a small, skewed sample,
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, said Rothschild. In his analysis of recent election polling of Xbox users, who tend to be young and male,
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, the expectation question outperformed the intention question and did a pretty good job of predicting the outcome of the 2012 presidential race.

In 1936, an upstart named George Gallup correctly predicted Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s win,
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, contradicting the Literary Digest, which had correctly forecast the winner of each presidential election since 1920. The Digest’s downfall was blamed on poor sampling and a poor response rate — it mailed its poll to voters based on phone books and car registrations at a time when many Americans had neither a telephone nor a car. Gallup reportedly sent pollsters out on the street to interview people in person.

It’s too bad old George isn’t here today,
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. The polling operation that bears his name was rated as

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21.02.2017, 11:21 - nieeshoes - Rank 6 - 1159 Posts
AI system learns like a human, stores info like a computer By Laurel Hamers , 18:38 PM October 13,
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, 2016 A GPS app can plan the best route between two subway stops if it has been specifically programmed for the task. But a new artificial intelligence system can figure out how to do so on the fly by learning general rules from specific examples, researchers report October 12 in Nature . Artificial neural networks, computer programs that mimic the human brain, are great at learning patterns and sequences, but so far they’ve been limited in their ability to solve complex reasoning problems that requi... Source URL:

Finding Neandertal ancestors in the human family tree was shocking enough when researchers announced it in 2010. Now the implications for modern-day people carrying surviving Neandertal DNA may prove just as stunning.
Today,
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, Europeans and Asians carry,
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, on average, between 1.5 percent and 4 percent Neandertal DNA. A flurry of new studies suggests that the genetic hand-me-downs may once have helped human newcomers adjust to their new homes. But these genetic bits and pieces may no longer be helpful,
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, and may even raise the risk of depression,
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, heart disease, some skin conditions,
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, allergies and other maladies.?
“There was, and still is, a lingering cost of having this admixture,
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,” says John Capra,
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, an evolutionary geneticist at Vanderbilt University in Nashville.
Capra and colleagues examined DNA and electronic health records from

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