many relationships that collapse in betrayal,
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, teasing out what goes wrong and who is at fault isn’t so easy.
Unlike Risk and other war games,
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, Diplomacy is all about, well,
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, diplomacy (John F. Kennedy and Henry Kissinger reportedly were fans). Set in Europe before World War I,
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, the nations/players have to form alliances to win. But chance is removed from the equation; players don’t roll dice or take turns. There’s only diplomacy: a negotiation phase where players converse, form alliances and gather intelligence (these days,
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, typically online),
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, and a movement phase where everyone’s decisions are revealed and executed all at once. Betrayal is so integral to Diplomacy that, as noted on a “This American Life” episode,
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, stabbing an ally in the back is referred to by the shorthand “stabbing.”
Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil, colleague and fan-of-the-game Jordan Boyd-Graber,
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, and colleagues examined 249 games of Diplomacy with a total of 145,000 messages among players. When they used a computer program to compare exchanges between players whose relationships ended in betrayal with those whose relationships lasted, the computer discerned subtle signals of impending betrayal.
One harbinger was a shift in politeness. Players who were excessively polite in general were more likely to betray, and people who were suddenly more polite were more likely to become victims of betrayal, study coauthor and Cornell graduate student Vlad Niculae reportedJuly 29 at the Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics?in Beijing. Consider this exchange from one round:

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