style="margin-left:.5in;">Germany: Can I suggest you move your armies east and then I will support you? Then next year you move [there] and dismantle Turkey. I will deal with England and France, you take out Italy.
Austria: Sounds like a perfect plan,
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! Happy to follow through,
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. And—thank you Bruder!
Austria’s next move was invading German territory. Bam! Betrayal.
An increase planning-related language by the soon-to-be victim also indicated impending betrayal,
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, a signal that emerges a few rounds before the treachery ensues. And correspondence of soon-to-be betrayers had an uptick in positive sentiment in the lead-up to their breach.
Working from these linguistic cues,
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, a computer program could peg future betrayal 57 percent of the time. That might not sound like much, but it was better than the accuracy of the human players,
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, who never saw it coming. And remember that by definition, a betrayer conceals the intention to betray; the breach is unexpected (that whole trust thing). Given that inherent deceit,
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, 57 percent isn’t so bad.
When I spoke to Danescu-Niculescu-Mizil, he said that more important than the clues themselves is the shift in the balance of behavior in the relationship.? Positive or negative sentiment of one player isn’t what matters,
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, it’s the asymmetry of the behavior of the two people in the relationship. He likens the linguistic tells to body language: While you wouldn’t use it as a sole basis for decision-making,
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, if you know how to interpret it, it might give you an advantage.
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