new research applications. “The more mature the research,
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, the easier the task of figuring out if it will be successful,” says Agha. “But even with [new] grants,
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, the relationship between peer review score and outcome is very much there.” Of course,
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, many new grants have extensive preliminary data, often funded by previously successful grants, and so the previous success of the scientist is always going to come into play in scoring.
In addition,
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, the study doesn’t show — and indeed can’t show — what path-breaking grant applications the peer review process may have missed. You can’t study the results of research that was never funded and potentially never performed. Berg says that one way to get at that question would be to calculate what might happen if the funding cutoff was more restrictive than it actually is. Researchers could then assess what grants would not have been funded and what research would have been lost.
And of course,
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, Agha notes that their results can’t compare between the success rate of peer review as a system and other ways of choosing what research to fund,
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, because there are no other systems available. “We’re not trying to make the case that the system is perfect or infallible,
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,” she says.
But the study shows that peer review is adding something. Reviewers are not simply rewarding their high-profile colleagues and are choosing studies that are associated with future productivity. “Everyone realizes [peer review] has flaws and biases, but it’s relatively transparent and it has done a good job,
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,” Berg notes. “There have been important

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