peers might be influenced by debates, political ads or their own inner fickleness.

Fortunately, some polling outfits have historically asked both the intention question and the expectation question, which allowed Rothschild and Wolfers to do some comparing. The economists looked at Electoral College results of presidential races from 1952 to 2008. In most cases, the answers to the intention and expectation questions were the same. But in the 77 cases in which the questions predicted different outcomes,
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, the expectation question correctly picked the winner 78 percent of the time.

It turns out that even when you have a small, skewed sample,
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, the expectation question can provide an accurate forecast,
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, said Rothschild. In his analysis of recent election polling of Xbox users,
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, who tend to be young and male, the expectation question outperformed the intention question and did a pretty good job of predicting the outcome of the 2012 presidential race.

In 1936,
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, an upstart named George Gallup correctly predicted Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s win,
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, contradicting the Literary Digest,
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, which had correctly forecast the winner of each presidential election since 1920. The Digest’s downfall was blamed on poor sampling and a poor response rate — it mailed its poll to voters based on phone books and car registrations at a time when many Americans had neither a telephone nor a car. Gallup reportedly sent pollsters out on the street to interview people in person.

It’s too bad old George isn’t here today,
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. The polling operation that bears his name was rated as

http://www.zondik.com/video/showgroup/anyoshoes

http://www.siempreluce...p;view=article&id=115

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