was replicated only once. Multiple repeats of a study balance out differences in study procedures and increase the number of successful replications, the scientists argue.
In a replication study that often amounted to a comparison of apples and oranges, at least 34 replication studies should have failed by chance,
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, assuming all 100 original studies described true effects,
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, Gilbert and his colleagues estimate. That makes the new estimate of 85 successful replications even more impressive,
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, they say.
Nosek’s group calculates that only about 22 replication attempts in the 2015 study should have failed by chance. Tellingly,
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, Nosek says, even successful replications found weaker statistical effects than the original studies had. Published studies make statistically significant findings look unduly strong,
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, he says. Journals usually don’t publish replication failures and many researchers simply file them away.
Another new analysis of Nosek’s group’s work suggests that replication study samples need to be beefed up before any conclusions can be made about the durability of psychology results. Failures to replicate in the 2015 investigation largely occurred because many original studies contained only enough participants to generate weak but statistically significant effects,
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, two psychologists assert February 26 in PLOS ONE. Journals’ bias for publishing only positive results also contributed to replication failures,
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, add? Alexander Etz,
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, at the University of Amsterdam

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